Predictive Factors

by Jay Deragon on 10/12/2007

Social Networking Predictions At the end of every year predictions about the short and long term future of issues abound.  Based on our own consumptions with market developments, research and analysis of related factors and a keen ear to moves from the players we have our own set of assumptions relative to what the future may bring.The future is likely not to be an extension of the past rather based on the current advancements the future is likely to be fresh and new with accelerated technologies that bring enhanced value propositions to consumers and business alike.

 Technology is advancing a rapid speeds.  Additionally new models for marketing and advertising are being introduced daily.  Multiple announcement come out daily with new versions, new models and breakthrough announcements.  It appears as though we’re in a hyper mode of advancements and changes are all around us.

Planning and maintaining momentum while not loosing site of existing conditions that present traction, economic return and positioning rather than chasing the future economic potentials is a constant challenge.

First a reflection on the past.

In a relatively short period of time social mediums are creating significant momentum across all segments of the web.  When one looks at the traffic stats of traditional web properties one can see a shift in traffic to social networking mediums.

 Social networks for everything and anything are popping up faster than analyst can track.  From pets sites to finance site all topics, all geography and most any industry has or is launching a social network.  Consumers are being overloaded with choices, different designs and interfaces, invitations and duplicative connections across multiple networks.  In addition consumers are overloaded with functions, features and choices.  The consumer is getting tired and looking for a “network” to rest on that satisfies most of their needs.  However the attraction to the medium of social networks remains strong.

Traffic comparisionsAdvertisers are moving to the medium and new technology aims at targeting ads at specific user segments matched with affinity products and services.

Creativity armed with specific reaches to target audience with multi-media messages promises much higher returns for marketers than past web technologies.  Money is pouring into the medium chasing the promise of increased sales and higher ROI’s.

The BIG are chasing the small.  Google bought YouTube, MSN invested millions into Facebook, VC’s poured millions into Linkedin and the host of other capital movements in this space is too long to even try and list.  The small, users of these mediums, are learning the power of self expression and niche publishing.  The power of connecting to others of like mindedness globally.  Knowledge transfer is expanding at rates never before imagined.  User generated content is exploding at rates never imagined.  On line publishing of books and magazines is enabling the small to to become bigger through reach and expression to specific markets.

Technological advances are accelerating and enabling rich media to be broadcast anywhere and everywhere.  Live TV can now be incorporated into blogs, wikis and social networks.  Smart technologies are emerging which enable markets to find people and things faster and more accurately than before.  Advanced search capabilities are about to be launched enabling users to more accurately find subjects and people they desire to affiliate with.  User enable control of placement on Google is now available through a variety of sources which places individuals automatically at the top of a Google search.

The number one growth trend in mobile applications is wireless social networking.  Mobile operators are launching more and more social medium applications.  Developers are pushing out creative data centric mobile applications,  Carriers, handset manufacturers, brands, advertisers and mobile portals are incorporating the medium into most of their marketing and development strategies aimed at gaining and retainer new users by increasing utility and functionality.  Consumers are buying.  Although early in its development the current adoption data shows long tail opportunities for growth are significant.

All of these trends have happened in less than five years.  Whew, change is definitely accelerating and fueled by technological advances centered around social mediums. Is this all hype and the bubble will burst?  Not likely given the emergence of long tail economic opportunism that follows these trends.  Advertising, user generated economic exchanges. business adaptation and uses of the medium, convergence of online and mobile capabilities and the explosive opportunities go on and on.  Today just over 500 million people are participating in this medium and the opportunity to attract billions more is growing strong.

Predictions are just that, predictions

Anyone can make a prediction but sound predictive modeling incorporates existing trends with advancements on the horizon and subsequently the meanings can be predictably close to final outcomes.

In near future post we will outline our top predictions based on current trends and new advancement yet to be released.  These predictions will cover:

  1. Likely mergers and acquisitions
  2. User adoption both personal and professional
  3. Technological convergence and subsequent outcomes
  4. Shifts in markets and consumer behavior
  5. Advanced technological developments and implications

These and more will be released early this quarter.  If you have any of your own predictions we encourage you to send them to us and if used you will get properly credited for your insights.  Send your top ten predictions for 2008.

We are about to enter 2008 and beyond and the implications of changes will fuel The Relationship Economy.  Stay tuned and prepare to grab your share of the opportunities.

What say you?


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