How Fast Will Things Change?

by Jay Deragon on 04/22/2009

Economists think about reality in terms of markets. In practice, a market is just an abstraction, and drawing the limits of markets out of actual information is a difficult task.

Consider the social networking market today and one can easily conclude that the rate of change makes it difficult to actual put boundaries around the definitions of “the market”.

Systemically speaking, some well differentiated markets are transformed into new ones, because of changes in the technology and the demand that cause the products or services of the original markets to end up by serving identical needs to the same customers. In such a situation, firms are faced with big opportunities and big potential drawbacks

Those that is able to correctly foresee the future developments can gain an important head start and position themselves so as to obtain an important competitive advantage. On the other hand, making irreversible investments in the wrong technology can seriously threaten the competitive position of a firm. This is the dilemma all of us.

Social Technology is Converging

There are different technological segments currently operating independently but on the fringe of convergence. Consider what is happening in the telecommunications industry. Consider what is happening within the social media space. Consider what is happening in the cable broadcasting space

Now consider on line social networking technologies. Everything is rushing to “open”. Open means transparent distribution and ultimately technological barriers become transparent. When you consider new developments within the social space” common themes are becoming clear. These include:

  1. Aggregation of “social news” generated by users is an attraction, i.e. Socialmedian
  2. Aggregation of friends activity is an attraction i.e. Friendfeeds and twitter
  3. Aggregation of social contacts is an attraction i.e “friends connect”
  4. “Aggregation of blogs by topical category is an attraction, i.e. Alltop
  5. Social Broadcasting is an attraction i.e. YouTube, etc.

Convergence usually comes from outside an existing system and led by those watching the fringes. Our conclusion is that the obvious is starring us all in the face but the chaos of the moment distracts us from seeing the obvious.

From our perspective convergence is not a question of will it happen but rather an issue of when. What is missing to usher convergence in?. Knowledge.

What say you?

{ 9 comments }

dan April 24, 2009 at 5:43 pm

Jay, the problem with economics is the structural difference between natural and human phenomenon. For example; Economics may have a model for the economic crisis, but, human action reflexes changing everything and distorting all those prior models.

The human model is what is driving the jet now. This is the social/relationship factor that you outline here. This plays out in every little micro-action as a reflex to the natural phenomenon and constantly changing that outcome and defying prediction. Social media will accelerate this to unbelievable levels – possibly dominant levels. Some see chaos others see order.

We need to let go of the reins of economics and grab the relationship / social media effect. people trade options, this is what is driving markets now. Human behavior is tangible, and markets are now intangible.

Robert Wood April 23, 2009 at 9:24 am

RT @gacconsultants: “How Fast Will Things Change?” http://hub.tm/?rWKhx – via @jderagon

Mark Harai April 23, 2009 at 9:00 am

“How Fast Will Things Change?” http://hub.tm/?rWKhx – via @jderagon

Brian C. Citizen April 23, 2009 at 3:25 am

Daily Deragon Dose: How Fast Will Things Change? http://tinyurl.com/6qxe68

JDeragon April 22, 2009 at 5:04 pm

How Fast Will Things Change?: Convergence usually comes from outside an existing system and led by those watchin.. http://tinyurl.com/6qxe68

Richard Telofski April 22, 2009 at 2:50 pm

How Fast Will Things Change? http://tinyurl.com/6qxe68

prblogs April 22, 2009 at 11:48 am

RelationshipEcon: How Fast Will Things Change?: Convergence usually comes from outside an exist.. http://tinyurl.com/6qxe68

StarGazon April 22, 2009 at 11:44 am

How Fast Will Things Change? /The Relationship Economy……/ – Convergence usually comes from outside an … http://tinyurl.com/47fvs7

StarGazon June 28, 2008 at 10:06 am

How Fast Will Things Change? /The Relationship Economy……/ – Economists think about reality in terms of … http://tinyurl.com/47fvs7

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